Beyond protectionism

Protectionist forces are growing in many industrial countries, and will be a significant factor in world trade in the early 1980s. However, an important counterforce is at work—the changing population distribution, and particularly age structure, of the industrial countries. The decrease in the number of 16–24-year olds available to enter the labour force, together with the increase in postsecondary education, suggest that there will be a dearth of semiskilled workers starting in the 1980s. A longer-term perspective may lead to policies which mitigate the protectionist threat.     

Measuring large comovements in financial markets

A general, copula-based framework for measuring the dependence among financial time series is presented. Particular emphasis is placed on multivariate conditional Spearman's rho (MCS), a new measure of multivariate conditional dependence that describes the association between large or extreme negative returns—so-called tail dependence. We demonstrate that MCS has a number of advantages over conventional measures of tail dependence, both in theory and in practical applications. In the analysis of univariate financial series, data are filtered to remove temporal dependence as a matter of routine. We show that standard filtering procedures may strongly influence the conclusions drawn concerning tail dependence. We give empirical applications to two large data sets of high-frequency asset returns. Our results have immediate implications for portfolio risk management, derivative pricing and portfolio selection. In this context we address portfolio tail diversification and tail hedging. Amongst other aspects, it is shown that the proposed modeling framework improves the estimation of portfolio risk measures such as the value at risk.     

Rentenversicherung zwischen Nachhaltigkeit und Gerechtigkeit

Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has taken considerable steps to improve the sustainability of financing its public pension system. However, more recently we have observed attempts to revoke some of the enacted reforms before their implementation. If the positive correlation between income and life expectancy is taken into account, one can indeed diagnose a discrimination against low-income earners in the present retirement benefit schedule, and this very group will suffer disproportionately from the increase in legal retirement age enacted in 2007. Therefore, to protect the sustainability of the pension system in the political sphere, it may be necessary to modify the schedule in favor of this group. In other words, sustainability and equity of the pension system must go hand in hand.     

Solvency II,asset liability management,and the European bond market – theory and empirical evidence

It is already foreseeable that Solvency II will tie capital requirements to a very comprehensive risk definition including underwriting and market risks. The new regulatory framework will demand more sophisticated tools to detect interest rate risks on both sides of the balance sheet in an integrated approach. Efforts by life insurers to level these risks could lead to an increased demand for long term fixed income securities. At this point the question arises if this industry wide change in asset demand will have or already has had an impact on prices of long-term bonds and the yield curve in the Euro-Zone?     

Umsetzungsbarrieren bei Produktinnovationen: Führt der „Weg des geringsten Widerstands“ zum Innovationserfolg?

Welche Innovationsbarrieren gef?hrden die Umsetzung kreativer Ideen in neue Produkte? Was bedeuten Umsetzungsbarrieren für den Erfolg eines Innovationsprozesses? Welche Strategien des Innovationsmanagements bew?hren sich? Mit Daten von 408 Produktinnovationsprozessen aus Technologiebranchen werden diese Zusammenh?nge für vier Innovationstypen vergleichend analysiert: Umsetzungsbarrieren in den Phasen Forschung & Entwicklung, Produktion und Markteinführung treten, insbesondere bei hohem Neuheitsgrad, nahezu immer auf. Der Intensit?t dieser Barrieren kommt jedoch nur geringe Erkl?rungskraft für den Innovationserfolg zu. Offensichtlich führen nicht nur „Wege des geringsten Widerstands“ zum Erfolg. Die Befunde zeigen, dass eine frühzeitige Integration von Akteuren und Funktionen dazu beitragen kann, Innovationserfolge auch „über Barrieren“ zu erreichen.     

Would China＇s Sovereign Wealth Fund Be a Menace to the USA？

The sovereign wealth club acquired a new member with the official launch of the China Investment Corporation （CIC） on 29 September 2007. The arrival of CIC has further heated up debate regarding sovereign wealth funds （SWFs） and their potential implications for global financial markets. This is because, in carrying out its investments, CIC can tap into China＇s huge official foreign exchange reserves, which by April 2008 had surged to US$1.76tn. CIC＇s initial working capital of US$2OObn makes it the fifth largest SWFs in the world today. This article seeks to analyze CIC＇s investment strategies, as well as their potential economic and political implications for global as well as US financial markets.     

Property and Industrial Organization in Communist and Capitalist Nations

Endogenous growth theorists argue that certain equity-enhancing social institutions enhance growth. Despite the centrality of inequality in these approaches, there is no sense in which economic actors exercise power or collective action to create and maintain social norms and rules that are personally advantageous but socially costly. This despite the work of neoclassical economists on rent-seeking, which posits that efforts to claim unearned revenues can pose significant costs for growth. The question of the impact of gender equity on economic growth is an instructive context for understanding these contradictions. Even though gender practices are inherently about the exercise of power, that they have become a feature of the neoclassical growth literature alights on obvious tensions in the neoclassical institutionalist paradigm. By incorporating insights from both the rent-seeking and feminist economics literatures, we will present analternative explanation of why gender hierarchies persist despite their obvious economic costs.     

Gesetzliche Rente: Bedeutet Teilhabeäquivalenz Verteilungsneutralität? — Ein weiterer Irrtum

A basic principle of statutory retirement insurance in Germany is the proportionality between earnings and retirement benefits called “Teilhabeäquivalenz”. Advocates of the system defend this principle, arguing that it ensures distributive neutrality. However, this assertion is wrong because the principle combines two concepts with different time dimensions: lifetime contributions and monthly retirement benefits. If clearly defined population groups differ in their life expectancy, then this very principle achieves income redistribution, in the German case from low earners to high earners. We propose a simple change in the rules which would avoid this undesirable redistribution.